2020 MLB Playoffs: Braves vs. Marlins odds, picks, NLDS Game 3 predictions from advanced model



The Atlanta Braves will look to close out their National League Division Series when they take on the Miami Marlins in Game 3 on Thursday. The Braves defeated the Marlins 2-0 on Wednesday to take a 2-0 lead in the series. Atlanta is aiming to be the first team to ever win a playoff series against the Marlins, who have won their first seven since entering the big leagues in 1993. The Braves have won four games in a row, while the Marlins have dropped two straight.

First pitch from Minute Maid Park in Houston is set for 2:08 p.m. ET. The Braves lead the all-time series 279-191, and have a 5-4 edge in postseason games. Atlanta is the -140 favorite on the money line in the latest Braves vs. Marlins odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total runs scored is 8.5. Before making any Marlins vs. Braves picks, check out the latest MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every pitch 10,000 times, returned more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line picks, and anyone who followed it saw huge rewards. It also got off to a hot start in the first week of the 2020 MLB Playoffs, hitting all three top-rated money-line MLB picks — including the Cardinals (+150) in Game 1 against the Padres — and returning almost $300 on the week. 

Now, the model has dialed in on Braves vs. Marlins. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the MLB odds from William Hill and trends for Marlins vs. Braves:

  • Braves vs. Marlins money line: Atlanta -140, Miami +130
  • Braves vs. Marlins run line: Atlanta -1.5
  • Braves vs. Marlins over-under: 8.5 runs
  • ATL: Recorded three shutouts in four postseason games
  • MIA: Returned over +1100 to money-line backers this season 

Why you should back the Braves

Atlanta will look to close out the series by sending right-hander Kyle Wright (2-4, 5.21 ERA) to the mound to make his postseason debut. It will be his first appearance since Sept. 25, when he allowed two runs in a career-high 6 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Boston Red Sox. He has wins in two of his last three outings. For the season, he is 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA. In 38 innings, he has allowed 35 hits, 22 earned runs and 24 walks, while striking out 30. He was 0-2 against Miami this season with a 10.29 ERA. In seven innings, he allowed eight earned runs.

Offensively, catcher Travis d’Arnaud continues his torrid hitting, going 1-for-3 with a solo home run in Game 2. For the series, he is 4-for-6 (.667) with a double, two home runs and five RBIs. In 10 games against the Marlins in 2020, d’Arnaud is 11-for-39 (.282) with two doubles, four homers and 10 RBIs. For his career, he is batting .313 vs. Miami with 10 doubles, 11 homers and 36 RBIs.

Why you should back the Marlins

Miami is facing its first elimination game since the 2003 NLCS. Right-hander Sixto Sanchez (3-2, 3.46 ERA) gets the start after shutting down the Chicago Cubs in Game 2 of the Wild Card round, allowing just four hits in five innings. He walked two and struck out six. He started two regular season games against the Braves, going 1-0 with a 4.00 ERA. In nine innings, he allowed seven hits, four earned runs and walked five, while striking out eight.

On offense, third baseman Brian Anderson has been red hot in the series, going 4-for-6 with a double and one RBI. He has scored runs in five of the past seven games overall. Against the Braves this season, Anderson is batting .316 with a double and six RBIs. In 58 career games vs. Atlanta, he is hitting .268 with 10 doubles and 21 RBIs.

How to make Braves vs. Marlins picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, as the simulation says the starting pitchers from both teams will combine to allow five runs in 10-plus combined innings. It also says one side of the money line has the value. Head to SportsLine now to see the pick. 

So who wins Marlins vs. Braves? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side to jump on, all from the advanced model that returned over $1,400 on MLB picks last year and got off to a hot start in the 2020 MLB Playoffs.

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