2020 NBA Finals: Lakers vs. Heat odds, picks, Game 3 predictions from model on 61-33 roll



The Los Angeles Lakers hold a 2-0 series lead in the 2020 NBA Finals. On Sunday evening, the Lakers will aim for a third straight victory over the Miami Heat, with Erik Spoelstra’s team attempting to avoid a perilous 3-0 deficit. The Heat will be dealing with injury issues, as Goran Dragic (foot) and Bam Adebayo (neck) are officially listed as doubtful for Game 3. Both missed Game 2 on Friday.

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in the Orlando bubble. William Hill lists Los Angeles as the 9-point favorite. The over-under, or total number of points expected, is 218.5 in the latest Lakers vs. Heat odds. Before locking in any Heat vs. Lakers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the 2020 NBA Finals on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Heat vs. Lakers:

  • Lakers vs. Heat spread: Lakers -9
  • Lakers vs. Heat over-under: 218.5 points
  • Lakers vs. Heat money line: Lakers -430, Heat +350
  • LAL: The Lakers are 6-2-2 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MIA: The Heat are 5-4-1 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Lakers can cover

The Lakers dominated the first two games, and they enjoyed team-wide success. However, Los Angeles is led by two superstars, and both are playing at a high level. Anthony Davis leads the way with 33.0 points and 11.5 rebounds per game in the first two contests, shooting 63 percent along the way. LeBron James is also controlling the proceedings, averaging 29 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists per contest. 

Against the Heat, the Lakers are passing the ball with wizardry, assisting on 66.7 percent of field goals, and Los Angeles is also dominating on the offensive glass in grabbing 36.0 percent of the available rebounds. Defensively, the Lakers have their hands full with a talented Heat team, but Los Angeles ranks in the top five in shooting efficiency allowed, turnover creation and 3-point volume allowed, while also leading the playoffs in blocked shots at 5.7 per game.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami’s defense has struggled against Los Angeles through two games, but the Heat remain a stellar offensive team. In the playoffs, the Heat are scoring more than 1.13 points per possession, with the best assist rate among teams that advanced to at least the second round of the playoffs. Miami also has the best assist-to-turnover ratio (1.94-to-1) in the playoffs, and the Heat have been even better against the Lakers in that category, with one turnover for every 2.89 assists. 

Miami is also proficient at generating free throws, leading the NBA in free-throw rate during the regular season and ranking second in the playoffs. Jimmy Butler is the team’s centerpiece, and he has stepped up in the 2020 NBA Finals to this point, averaging 24 points, nine assists, five rebounds and 1.5 steals per game against Los Angeles. 

How to make Lakers vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with Kyle Kuzma projected to fall short of his season-long scoring average and the Heat projected to operate without two top scorers. It also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Heat vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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