2020 NBA Finals: Lakers vs. Heat odds, picks, Game 3 predictions from proven model on 61-33 roll

Game 3 of the 2020 NBA Finals arrives on Sunday evening, with the Los Angeles Lakers squaring off against the Miami Heat. The Lakers lead the series by a 2-0 margin after a 10-point win on Friday, with the Heat aiming to avoid a disastrous 3-0 start on the league’s biggest stage. Miami may be forced to play without key pieces, however, as Goran Dragic (foot) and Bam Adebayo (neck) are listed as doubtful to play. 

Tip-off for Game 3 of Heat vs. Lakers is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Los Angeles is a 9.5-point favorite in the latest Lakers vs. Heat odds from William Hill, while the over-under, or total number of points expected, is 219.5. Before you make any Heat vs. Lakers picks for Game 3, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the 2020 NBA Finals on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Heat vs. Lakers:

  • Lakers vs. Heat spread: Lakers -9.5
  • Lakers vs. Heat over-under: 219.5 points
  • Lakers vs. Heat money line: Lakers -475, Heat +380
  • LAL: The Lakers are 6-2-2 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MIA: The Heat are 5-4-1 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Lakers can cover

The Lakers are scoring at an unbelievable rate against Miami, leading to enormously positive results in the first two games. Los Angeles is scoring 1.26 points per possession, up from an already impressive 1.16 points per possession in the playoffs, and the Lakers are also dominating the possession battle. The Lakers are grabbing 36 percent of available offensive rebounds against the Heat, and Los Angeles boasts a sparkling assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.76-to-1 in the series. 

Defensively, the Lakers are also very strong, ranking third in the regular season in allowing only 1.06 points per possession. Los Angeles is tied for third-best in shooting efficiency allowed during the playoffs, with the No. 1 mark in blocked shots (5.7 per game) and the No. 4 spot in turnover creation, forcing a giveaway on 14.9 percent of possessions. 

Why the Heat can cover

Miami’s defense has struggled against Los Angeles through two games, but the Heat remain a stellar offensive team. In the playoffs, the Heat are scoring more than 1.13 points per possession, with the best assist rate among teams that advanced to at least the second round of the playoffs. Miami also has the best assist-to-turnover ratio (1.94-to-1) in the playoffs, and the Heat have been even better against the Lakers in that category, with one turnover for every 2.89 assists. 

Miami is also proficient at generating free throws, leading the NBA in free-throw rate during the regular season and ranking second in the playoffs. Jimmy Butler is the team’s centerpiece, and he has stepped up in the 2020 NBA Finals to this point, averaging 24 points, nine assists, five rebounds and 1.5 steals per game against Los Angeles. 

How to make Lakers vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with Kyle Kuzma projected to fall short of his season-long scoring average and the Heat projected to operate without two top scorers. It also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Heat vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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