2020 NBA Finals: Lakers vs. Heat odds, picks, Game 4 predictions from model on 61-33 roll

The Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat face off in a pivotal Game 4 matchup on Tuesday evening. The Lakers won the first two games of the 2020 NBA Finals, with the Heat bouncing back with a Game 3 victory on Sunday evening. Bam Adebayo (neck) is officially listed as questionable for the Heat, with Goran Dragic (foot) listed as doubtful.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET inside the Orlando bubble. William Hill lists Los Angeles as a 7.5-point favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points expected, is 218.5 in the latest Lakers vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Lakers picks for Game 4, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the 2020 NBA Finals on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Heat vs. Lakers:

  • Lakers vs. Heat spread: Lakers -7.5
  • Lakers vs. Heat over-under: 218.5 points
  • Lakers vs. Heat money line: Lakers -310, Heat +255
  • LAL: The Lakers are 5-3-2 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MIA: The Heat are 6-3-1 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Lakers can cover

Despite a hiccup in Game 3, the Lakers are still the best team in the playoffs statistically, leading the NBA with a 14-4 record and a +7.2 net rating. Offensively, the Lakers rank in the top three in offensive-rebound rate, free-throw rate and true shooting percentage among playoff teams, with Los Angeles bludgeoning Miami in grabbing 33.1 percent of its own missed shots in the series. On the other end, the Lakers are also quite stout, even against a diverse and efficient Miami offense. 

In the playoffs, Los Angeles ranks fifth in shooting efficiency allowed and fourth in turnover creation, creating a turnover on 14.8 percent of possessions. The Lakers also use their length to generate havoc, ranking third in steals per game (8.3) and first in blocks per game (5.5) in the playoffs. Finally, Los Angeles has the size edge in this series and it shows, with the Lakers allowing the Heat to generate only 9.3 second chance points per game while grabbing 84.4 percent of available defensive rebounds. 

Why the Heat can cover

The Heat are an outstanding offensive team, scoring 113.5 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs. Miami boasts a 66.1 percent assist rate in the postseason, and the Heat lead the NBA with 1.94 assists per turnover in the playoffs. The Heat are also above-average in protecting the ball, committing a turnover on only 13.2 percent of possessions, and Miami ranks No. 3 in shooting efficiency and No. 2 in free-throw rate during their postseason run. 

Jimmy Butler is leading the way, averaging 29.3 points, 10.3 assists and 7.0 rebounds in the NBA Finals, and the Heat have a bevy of shooters, headlined by Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro. Defensively, Miami has been frisky during the playoffs and, in Game 3, they had plenty of success. The Heat were the second-best defensive rebounding team in the league during the regular season and, after grabbing nearly 85 percent of the Lakers’ missed shots in Game 3, Miami can take solace in that improvement for the rest of the series.

How to make Lakers vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with Kyle Kuzma projected to fall short of his season-long scoring average and the Heat projected to operate without two top scorers. It also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Heat vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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