2020 NBA Finals: Lakers vs. Heat odds, picks, Game 6 predictions from model on 61-33 roll

The Los Angeles Lakers will attempt to close out the Miami Heat in Game 6 of the 2020 NBA Finals on Sunday evening. On the back of Jimmy Butler, the Heat avoided elimination in a hard-fought, memorable Game 5 win on Friday to cut the Los Angeles series advantage to 3-2. For Game 6, Goran Dragic (foot) is listed as doubtful for the Heat, with Anthony Davis (heel) listed as probable for the Lakers. Tip-off is 7:30 p.m. ET inside the Orlando bubble. 

William Hill lists Los Angeles as the five-point favorite in the latest Lakers vs. Heat odds. The over-under for total points is set at 214.5, down two points from the opening line. Before finalizing any Heat vs. Lakers picks for Game 6, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the 2020 NBA Finals on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Heat vs. Lakers:

  • Lakers vs. Heat spread: Lakers -5
  • Lakers vs. Heat over-under: 214.5 points
  • Lakers vs. Heat money line: Lakers -215, Heat +185
  • LAL: The Lakers are 3-5-2 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MIA: The Heat are 6-3-1 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Lakers can cover

The Lakers are still in an enviable position in the series, with the presence of LeBron James and Davis at the forefront. James is averaging 30.2 points, 11.4 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game in the NBA Finals, with Davis adding 26.2 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game. Los Angeles has the best net rating in the playoffs, outscoring opponents by 6.6 points per 100 possessions, and the Lakers are operating at a high level offensively. 

On the defensive side, Los Angeles has been strong on the glass against Miami, and the Heat are a below-average offensive rebounding team overall, grabbing only 24.4 percent of their own misses in the playoffs. The Lakers rank in the top four in both shooting-efficiency allowed and turnover creation in the playoffs, with top-three marks in both steals per game and blocks per game during the postseason. 

Why the Heat can cover

The Heat are enjoying significant offensive success in the series, scoring 1.13 points per possession. Miami is generating 2.05 assists for every turnover, a mark that is elite in any context, and the Heat are committing a giveaway on only 12.5 percent of possessions. From an efficiency perspective, the Heat boast a 59.3 percent true shooting, and Miami is arguably the best passing team in the playoffs, headlined by a 65.8 percent assist rate overall. The Heat are also tremendous at generating free-throw attempts, leading the league in free-throw rate during the regular season and ranking second in the playoffs. 

Defensively, the sledding is undeniably more difficult, but Miami ranks sixth in shooting efficiency allowed during the playoffs. That is a strong starting point and, in limiting its own giveaways, Miami ranks quite well in allowing only 15.2 points per game off turnovers in the playoffs and only 14.8 per game in this series.

How to make Lakers vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with Kyle Kuzma and Kendrick Nunn projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Heat vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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