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Chiefs vs. Patriots odds, line, spread: 2020 NFL picks, predictions from proven model on 103-67 roll

On Saturday, New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19, moving the game to Monday night on CBS. Veteran Brian Hoyer will likely start for Newton, who could also miss the Patriots’ Week 5 game. On the other sideline, 2018 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes is looking like an MVP candidate again through three weeks with 898 passing yards and nine touchdowns with no interceptions. No positive coronavirus tests were recorded on Sunday involving either team.

Kickoff is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Chiefs odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 49.5. Before making any Chiefs vs. Patriots picks, be sure to see the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It’s off to a strong 7-2 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 4 on an incredible 103-67 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, it has simulated Patriots vs. Chiefs 10,000 times. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Chiefs vs. Patriots:

  • Patriots vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -10.5
  • Patriots vs. Chiefs over-under: 49.5
  • Patriots vs. Chiefs money line: New England +450, Kansas City -600
  • NE: Forced a turnover on 23.3 percent of opponent drives this season.
  • KC: Eight different players have scored for an offense that has produced 11 TDs.

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is 8-0 against the spread in its last eight games after posting more than 250 yards passing in its previous game, and Mahomes threw for 385 yards against Baltimore. He was not intercepted or sacked while ending the Ravens’ 14-game regular-season winning streak. All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce led the team with 87 receiving yards and five Chiefs had more than 60, with Mecole Hardman and Tyreek Hill scoring TDs. 

The Chiefs are 6-0-1 against the spread in their last seven games as home favorites, and rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 134 total yards Monday night. The defense is allowing yardage but is sixth in the league in scoring defense, allowing 20 points per game. Kansas City can get after the passer, posting 10 sacks, and Chris Jones is tied for second in the NFL with 3.5. He tweaked his groin in Week 3 and is listed as questionable, but Frank Clark (two sacks) and rookie Mike Danna (one) also can apply pressure.

Why the Patriots can cover

New England is 8-2-1 against the spread in its last 11 games after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game, and the Pats lead the NFL at 178 yards per game. Sony Michel (quad) has been ruled out, but the Patriots have other capable backs. Rex Burkhead has 83 on 19 carries, while Damien Harris and J.J. Taylor should see work as well. The Chiefs are susceptible to the run, giving up 153 yards per game, 27th in the NFL. 

The Patriots are 20-6-1 against the spread in their last 27 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points, and the defense continues to make plays. The unit led the league with a stunning plus-21 turnover margin last season and has picked up where it left off, ranking second at plus-4.

How to make Patriots vs. Chiefs picks

The model is leaning under on the total, suggesting Burkhead will be limited for New England and K.C.’s secondary receivers will be held in check. It also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. 

So who wins Patriots vs. Chiefs on Monday night? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Chiefs vs. Patriots spread you should be all over Monday, all from the model on a 103-67 roll on its top-rated NFL picks.

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