Chiefs vs. Raiders odds, line, spread: 2020 NFL picks, predictions from model on 103-69 roll

The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will try to start 5-0 for the third time in the last four seasons when they host the rival Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs (4-0) already are the first team in NFL history to start 4-0 in four consecutive seasons. On Sunday, Kansas City will face a Raiders team that is coming off back-to-back defeats, the most recent being a 30-23 loss to Buffalo. 

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. Kansas City is an 11-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Raiders odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 55.5. Before making any Raiders vs. Chiefs picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It’s off to a strong 7-4 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 5 on an incredible 103-69 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Chiefs vs. Raiders 10,000 times. You can visit SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Raiders vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Raiders spread: Kansas City -11
  • Chiefs vs. Raiders Over-Under: 55.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Raiders money line: Kansas City -650, Las Vegas +475
  • KC: Opponents have just three sacks this season, tied for the fewest in the league.
  • LV: The Raiders rank second in the NFL in third down conversions (52.9 percent).

Why the Chiefs can cover

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been excellent to start this season. Through four games the reigning Super Bowl MVP has completed 67.3 percent of his passes for 1,134 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has yet to commit a turnover and is on pace for his highest completion percentage and quarterback rating (114.1) of his career.

In addition, Kansas City has been winning the turnover battle. The Chiefs have forced seven turnovers this season while committing just two. The +5 turnover margin is tied for second in the league behind only the Browns.

Why the Raiders can cover

Quarterback Derek Carr is playing arguably the best football of his career. The seven-year veteran has completed 73.6 percent of his passes and has thrown eight touchdown passes without an interception. His completion percentage and quarterback rating (113.6) would be the highest of his career.

In addition, Las Vegas has been one of the best teams on third down this season. Through four weeks the Raiders are converting 52.9 percent of their third downs. That ranks second in the league.

How to make Chiefs vs. Raiders picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it says Mahomes will easily clear 300 yards passing and Josh Jacobs has a great chance to hit 100 yards on the ground. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here. 

So who wins Chiefs vs. Raiders? And which side of the spread cashes in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Raiders vs. Chiefs spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,300 on its NFL picks over the past five-plus seasons, and find out.

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