Cowboys vs. Browns odds, line, spread: 2020 NFL picks, predictions from model on 103-67 roll

The Dallas Cowboys will look to even their record and keep at least a share of first place in the NFC East on Sunday when they take on the Cleveland Browns. Dallas is tied for first with Washington at 1-2, while Cleveland is tied with Baltimore for second in the AFC North at 2-1. The Browns have won two in a row, while the Cowboys are coming off a last-second loss at Seattle. Dallas is 1-0 on its home field. 

Kickoff from the AT&T Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET. Dallas is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Cowboys vs. Browns odds from William Hill. The over-under for total points scored is set at 56. Before making any Browns vs. Cowboys picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It’s off to a strong 7-2 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 4 on an incredible 103-67 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has simulated Cowboys vs. Browns 10,000 times. You can visit SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Browns vs. Cowboys:

  • Cowboys vs. Browns spread: Cowboys -4.5
  • Cowboys vs. Browns over-under: 55.5 points
  • Cowboys vs. Browns money line: Browns +190, Cowboys -220
  • CLE: LB B.J. Goodson had an interception and a fumble recovery last week
  • DAL: Is first in the NFL in total yards per game at 503.3

Why the Cowboys can cover

Quarterback Dak Prescott passed for 472 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions for a 93.6 rating in last week’s 38-31 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. He is the second quarterback in NFL history with 450 or more passing yards in consecutive games (Jameis Winston). The last time Prescott faced Cleveland, he threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns for a 141.8 rating. He has a 90-plus passer rating in 16 of his past 17 home starts. 

Running back Ezekiel Elliott was held to 58 yards from scrimmage against Seattle, including 34 yards rushing. In his last meeting with the Browns, Elliott rushed for 92 yards and two scores. He is shooting for his fourth home game in a row with a rushing TD and his fifth game in a row at AT&T Stadium with 120 or more yards from scrimmage. For the season, Elliott leads Dallas in rushing with 58 carries for 219 yards and three TDs.

Why the Browns can cover

Despite that, Dallas is not a lock to cover the Browns vs. Cowboys spread. That’s because Cleveland has been putting up points the last two weeks with a 35-30 win over Cincinnati and a 34-20 victory over Washington. Quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 16 of 23 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns for a season-high 117.3 rating last week. He is looking for his third game in a row with two or more touchdown passes and a 110-plus rating. 

Also looking for another big game is running back Nick Chubb, who rushed for 108 yards and two TDs against Washington. In his last three games against NFC opponents, Chubb has 397 yards from scrimmage and five rushing touchdowns. Chubb is tied for the NFL lead with four rushing touchdowns and is fourth with 292 rushing yards.

How to make Browns vs. Cowboys picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total. In fact, it says Chubb will be held to 92 yards and one TD, while Prescott will throw for just two touchdowns and one interception. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here. 

So who wins Cowboys vs. Browns? And which side of the spread cashes in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Browns vs. Cowboys spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,500 on its NFL picks over the past five seasons, and find out.

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