Falcons vs. Packers odds, line: Monday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 103-67 roll

The Green Bay Packers will try to stay perfect when they host to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football. Green Bay is off to its best start since going 6-0 in 2015, while Atlanta is off to its worst start since going 0-4 in 1999. The Packers could be without top wide receiver Davante Adams (questionable, hamstring), who missed last week’s game. Atlanta kicker Younghoe Koo (leg strain) will also be out, while the status of wide receivers Julio Jones (hamstring) and Calvin Ridley (ankle) is in question. Green Bay defeated the New Orleans Saints in Week 3, while the Falcons dropped a 30-26 decision to the Chicago Bears.

Kickoff from Lambeau Field is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The Packers are seven-point favorites in the latest Falcons vs. Packers odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 56.5. Before making any Falcons vs. Packers picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It’s off to a strong 7-2 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 4 on an incredible 103-67 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Falcons vs. Packers. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Falcons vs. Packers:

  • Falcons vs. Packers spread: Packers -7
  • Falcons vs. Packers over-under: 56.5 points
  • Falcons vs. Packers money line: Falcons +280, Packers -340
  • ATL: S Damontae Kazee had his fifth career forced fumble last week
  • GB: First in the NFL, scoring 40.7 points per game

Why the Packers can cover

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been playing at an MVP level to start the season. Last week against the Saints, Rodgers passed for 283 yards with three touchdowns for a 124.9 rating. In seven career starts against Atlanta, Rodgers has passed for 2,165 yards (309.3 per game) and 17 touchdowns for a 111.1 rating. He has eight touchdowns against one interception for a 112.2 rating in three career home starts against the Falcons.

The Packers are perfect against the spread this season, winning outright last week as a field-goal underdog. The Over has hit in all three Packers games this season.

Why the Falcons can cover

Despite that, Green Bay is not a lock to cover the Falcons vs. Packers spread. That’s because Atlanta could very easily be 3-0, but has blown fourth-quarter leads in its first three games. Quarterback Matt Ryan has had plenty of success against Green Bay through the years, and threw for 262 yards, three touchdowns and one interception for a 97.5 rating in his last meeting. In four career starts at Green Bay, Ryan has 11 touchdowns and four interceptions for a 98.2 rating. He is looking for his fifth game in a row at Green Bay with two or more touchdowns. 

With injuries to Green Bay’s interior defensive line, Falcons running back Todd Gurley could have a big night. Last week against Chicago, he rushed for 80 yards and a touchdown. In his last game against the Packers as a member of the Los Angeles Rams, Gurley had 195 yards from scrimmage with 114 yards rushing and one receiving TD. In his only career game at Green Bay in 2015, Gurley rushed for 159 yards. He is looking for his third game in a row against the Packers with 150 or more yards from scrimmage.

How to make Falcons vs. Packers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it’s calling for 61 total points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here. 

So who wins Packers vs. Falcons on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Packers spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,500 on its NFL picks over the past five seasons, and find out.

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