Lightning vs. Stars odds, NHL picks, Game 6 predictions from proven model

The Dallas Stars have been masters of the comeback this postseason as they’ve rallied from a deficit to record a victory nine times – one shy of the NHL record set in 2009 by Pittsburgh. They posted their latest come-from-behind win when they needed it most, defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning in double overtime on Saturday after being less than seven minutes away from having their chance at a championship come to an end. The Stars attempt to even the 2020 Stanley Cup Final at three wins apiece when they face off against the Lightning in Game 6 on Monday night. Opening faceoff from Rogers Place in Edmonton is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET.

a baseball player holding a bat in the snow: Dec 12, 2019; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago Blackhawks center Jonathan Toews (19) looks on during the third period against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena.

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Dec 12, 2019; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago Blackhawks center Jonathan Toews (19) looks on during the third period against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena.

The Lightning bounced back from a series-opening loss to take a 3-1 lead and were 6:45 away from winning the Stanley Cup for the second time in franchise history on Saturday. However, Dallas managed to forge a tie before Corey Perry scored midway through the second overtime to extend the series to a sixth game. Tampa Bay is the -170 favorite in the latest Lightning vs. Stars odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total goals scored is five. Before making any Stars vs. Lightning picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, taking into account factors like current form, individual matchups, injuries and short- and long-term trends when making NHL picks. The model seeks the best values on the money line, puck line and total.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lightning vs. Stars. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the latest NHL odds from William Hill and trends for Stars vs. Lightning: 

  • Lightning vs. Stars money line: Tampa Bay -170, Dallas +150
  • Lightning vs. Stars puck line: Tampa Bay -1.5
  • Lightning vs. Stars over-under: 5 goals
  • TB: Lightning are 45-8 in their last 53 games after scoring fewer than three goals in their previous contest
  • DAL: Stars are 4-0 in the last four finales of stretches during which they play four games in six days

Why you should back the Lightning

Tampa Bay has yet to lose back-to-back games this postseason, going 5-0 following a setback. Despite Saturday’s defeat, the Lightning have had success in close playoff contests, as they are 12-2 in one-goal games and 6-2 in overtime. Scoring first has made quite a difference for Tampa Bay, which is 11-1 when netting the first tally of the game in these playoffs.

Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Ondrej Palat all enter Monday’s contest with four-game point streaks. Kucherov, who leads the NHL in scoring this postseason with 33 points, has recorded a goal and six assists during his run, while Point has netted four tallies and set up three others. With his third goal and fifth point during his streak on Saturday, Palat became the fourth player ever to register 60 postseason points with the team.

Why you should back the Stars

Dallas signed Perry in July 2019 for this exact reason, as the veteran has a flair for producing in big spots during the postseason. The 35-year-old, who won the Stanley Cup in 2007 with Anaheim, has scored eight goals – including two on Saturday – in 18 games in which his team is facing elimination. His winner in Game 5 was his fifth career playoff overtime tally, tying him with Glenn Anderson and Patrick Kane for third place on the all-time list.

The Stars are happy that Tyler Seguin finally has begun to heat up. The 28-year-old, who led the team in scoring during the regular season with 50 points, recorded just one in 12 games before amassing five assists in his last two contests. Defenseman Miro Heiskanen has landed on the scoresheet in four of his last five games and leads Dallas in scoring this postseason with 26 points.

How to make Lightning vs. Stars picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with the simulation suggesting Tampa Bay’s Kucherov and Dallas’ Denis Gurianov have the best chance to score a goal for their teams. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Stars vs. Lightning? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lightning vs. Stars money line to jump on Monday, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times, and find out. 

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