Monday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 103-69 roll

The New Orleans Saints will try to continue their success at home when they host the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football. It’s the second-to-last game of the Week 5 NFL schedule. The Saints (2-2), who won the NFC South at 13-3 in 2019, are 7-3 at home since the start of last season. Los Angeles, which finished fourth in the AFC West at 5-11 a year ago, is 4-6 on the road since last September. Los Angeles will be without running back Austin Ekeler (hamstring), while New Orleans will be without star wideout Michael Thomas. New Orleans won the last meeting with Los Angeles, a 35-34 victory in 2016 at San Diego.

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Kickoff from the Superdome is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. New Orleans is a seven-point favorite in the latest Saints vs. Chargers odds from William Hill after the line opened at 7.5, while the over-under is 50. Before making any Chargers vs. Saints picks, check out the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It’s off to a strong 7-4 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 5 on an incredible 103-69 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Chargers vs. Saints. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds from William Hill and trends for Saints vs. Chargers:

  • Chargers vs. Saints spread: Saints -7
  • Chargers vs. Saints over-under: 50 points
  • Chargers vs. Saints money line: Chargers +250, Saints -300
  • LAC: Has allowed a red zone touchdown percentage of 42.9, third-best in the NFL
  • NO: Over has hit in all four Saints games this season

Why the Saints can cover

With wide receiver Michael Thomas (ankle) out, wide receivers Tre’Quan Smith and Emmanuel Sanders have stepped up their games and are tied for second on the team with 14 receptions apiece, behind running back Alvin Kamara’s 30.

Smith had two receiving TDs in Week 4, his second career game with two touchdowns. For the season, he has 186 receiving yards with three explosive plays and 11 first-down conversions. He has 60 career receptions for 847 yards and 12 touchdowns. 

Sanders has 182 receiving yards with two touchdowns and one explosive play. He has converted 12 first downs. He led the Saints with six receptions for 93 yards last week at Detroit. For his career, he has 615 receptions for 8,075 yards and 44 touchdowns. He also has 393 first-down conversions.

Why the Chargers can cover

Despite that, New Orleans is not a lock to cover the Chargers vs. Saints spread. That’s because with Ekeler down, Los Angeles will lean on rookie quarterback Justin Herbert, who has proven more than capable of sparking the offense. Herbert has completed 77 of 107 passes for 931 yards and five touchdowns. He has been picked off three times, but still has a rating of 102.2.

Wide receiver Keenan Allen leads the AFC with 32 receptions for 327 yards and one touchdown. He has four explosive plays on the season with 158 yards after the catch and 19 first-down conversions. He has 21 catches in two career games against teams from the NFC South.

How to make Saints vs. Chargers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over the total. In fact, it says Herbert will throw for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns, while Brees will throw for nearly 250 yards and at least two scores. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here. 

So who wins Chargers vs. Saints on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chargers vs. Saints spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,300 on its NFL picks over the past five seasons, and find out.

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