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New model predicts ‘huge surge’ in COVID-19 across US next month as cases rise in 21 states

The number of new coronavirus cases in 21 states has increased by at least 10 percent or more from last week as health officials warn of a possible surge in cases in the fall and winter, according to a CNN analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. 

New cases have risen in Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington state, Wisconsin and Wyoming, according to CNN. 


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Cases in at least 18 states are holding steady while 11 states have experienced a decrease of 10 percent or more from a week earlier, according to the analysis. 

The U.S. is continuing to report more than 40,000 new cases every day, up from a recent low of about 34,000 cases a day earlier this month. The increase in new infections across the country comes as health officials worry the fall and winter months could bring more devastation when the flu season kicks off and people begin to move indoors in tighter spaces because of cooler temperatures. 

White House coronavirus adviser Anthony Fauci said last month the U.S. needed to get to about 10,000 cases per day to get a hold on the virus going into the fall and winter months, while Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield previously said the country could be in for “the worst fall, from a public health perspective, we’ve ever had” as a surge in coronavirus cases could coincide with the flu season. 

Chris Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health and Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), told CNN the country could experience a “huge surge” in cases beginning in October and going through December. As the U.S. is recording about 765 coronavirus deaths every day, the IHME model projects daily fatalities could hit 3,000 in December. 

The model also estimates the U.S. could tally more than 371,000 COVID-19 deaths by Jan. 1, 2021. 


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