Surprising 2020 YellaWood 500 picks by proven model

Talladega Superspeedway is one of the most unpredictable venues in the NASCAR Cup Series and on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET it will host the fourth race of the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs. With just two races to go before the playoff field is trimmed from 12 to 8, the 2020 YellaWood 500 is the biggest opportunity for a massive points swing with “The Big One” threatening every driver at every turn. Austin Dillon is currently in 12th and is 32 points back from the cutoff line, but a strong finish could help cut into that deficit and a win gets him into the final eight automatically.

a car driving on a race track: Just imagine all of the football that can go in this infield in Alabama.

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Just imagine all of the football that can go in this infield in Alabama.

Dillon is a 30-1 long shot in the 2020 YellaWood 500 odds from William Hill, but he has a superspeedway win under his belt at the 2018 Daytona 500 and also finished sixth in the fall race at Talladega last season. However, Denny Hamlin (17-2), Ryan Blaney (10-1), Chase Elliott (10-1) and Joey Logano (10-1) are at the top of the NASCAR at Talladega odds board. Before locking in your 2020 YellaWood 500 picks, be sure to see the latest 2020 NASCAR Playoffs at Talladega predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven model at SportsLine.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 NASCAR season by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start on its NASCAR picks following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven of the top 10 drivers at both Darlington races. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol in May. 

The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in an outright bet on Hamlin winning at 10-1 at Miami. At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season, and also identified four top-five drivers in the All-Star Race at Bristol. At the Daytona road course, the model called Chase Elliott’s win and nailed three of the top four drivers and then was high on last week’s winner Kurt Busch even though he was a 40-1 long shot. Anybody who has follow the model has seen some huge returns. 

Now, the model simulated the NASCAR at Talladega race on Sunday, Oct. 4, 10,000 times. Head here to see the complete projected leaderboard.

Top 2020 YellaWood 500 predictions

One surprise: The model is high on Martin Truex Jr., even though he’s a 20-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Talladega odds from William Hill. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Truex is in good position to make the next stage of the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, but he still has work to do to secure his spot in the final eight.

Luckily, he should have a solid superspeedway setup to work with after finishing fourth in the 2020 Coke Zero Sugar 400. He also led four laps at the 2020 Geico 500 after starting on the pole and has now led in two of the last three races at Talladega. He’ll start third on Sunday, and if he can avoid the big wreck, he’ll have a chance to make a run.

And a massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, one of the favorites at 10-1, stumbles big time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded field. Blaney was eliminated from the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs in the last round of cuts but did turn in a respectable seventh-place finish at Las Vegas last week.

However, even after winning at Talladega earlier this year and taking second at the 2020 Daytona 500, Blaney hasn’t had a top-five finish since Michigan on Aug. 8. He’s also finished outside the top 10 in seven of his last nine starts. In addition, Blaney has eight finishes outside the top 10 in 12 career starts at Talladega.

How to make 2020 YellaWood 500 picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can only see who they are here.

So who wins Sunday’s 2020 YellaWood 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2020 NASCAR at Talladega leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks and nailed the Daytona 500.

2020 NASCAR Playoffs at Talladega odds (via William Hill)

Denny Hamlin 17-2

Ryan Blaney 10-1

Chase Elliott 10-1

Joey Logano 10-1

Brad Keselowski 12-1

Kevin Harvick 12-1

Kyle Busch 14-1

Kurt Busch 17-1

Aric Almirola 18-1

Alex Bowman 18-1

Jimmie Johnson 18-1

Martin Truex Jr. 20-1

William Byron 20-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20-1

Matt DiBenedetto 28-1

Austin Dillon 30-1

Bubba Wallace 30-1

Clint Bowyer 35-1

Tyler Reddick 35-1

Christopher Bell 40-1

Chris Buescher 40-1

Erik Jones 40-1

Cole Custer 40-1

Matt Kenseth 50-1

Ryan Newman 50-1

John Hunter Nemechek 75-1

Michael McDowell 75-1

Ryan Preece 100-1

Brendan Gaughan 100-1

Ty Dillon 100-1

Corey Lajoie 150-1

Brennan Poole 200-1

Daniel Suarez 200-1

JJ Yeley 400-1

Reed Sorenson 500-1

Timmy Hill 500-1

Quin Houff 500-1

Joey Gase 500-1

James Davison 750-1

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