model

Lab develops unprecedented long-term wildfire prediction model

Argonne develops unprecedented long-term wildfire prediction model
Wildfires burn across the West, affecting California, Oregon and Washington. Credit: Shutterstock / My Photo Buddy

Wildfire indices and high-resolution climate models combine to produce a detailed historical analysis of wildfire events across the U.S. and suggest the potential for more severe and frequent fires in the latter half of the century.


The list is long, some of the names familiar: Sunflower, Paradise, Whitewater-Baldy, Apple, Pinecreek. Names that invoke images of pastoral respites away from the busy world.

Now those names are synonymous with wildfires.

The number and severity of wildfires are making headlines across the globe, from the Western United States to Brazil, from Siberia to Australia. Wildfires devastate the environment, decimating huge swaths of land and wildlife populations—it is estimated, for example, that a half billion animals perished in the megafires that recently swept Australia. Beyond their impact on nature, wildfires also take a toll on air quality,

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