model

UMass model predicts Mass. death tally to rise near 9,800 in four weeks

A University of Massachusetts model predicts the state’s coronavirus death toll could rise near 9,800 by Oct. 24.

The model says the state could tally 9,769 coronavirus deaths by that time, though researchers noted the number could range from 9,633 to 9,997.

The model numbers reflect both confirmed and probable cases. The state had tallied 9,423 confirmed and probable case deaths as of Tuesday.

The rate of deaths reported each day has slowed after a terrifying climb this spring. The model predicts the state will continue to see around 90 coronavirus deaths a week in the coming weeks.

The projection comes from a lab headed by UMass Amherst associate professor Nicholas Reich that collects various models and develops a combined forecast that is intended to reflect their collective wisdom.

It only creates the forecast for a four-week window ahead because scientists believe forecasts aren’t reliable enough after that.

Reich’s lab

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model

New model predicts ‘huge surge’ in COVID-19 across US next month as cases rise in 21 states

The number of new coronavirus cases in 21 states has increased by at least 10 percent or more from last week as health officials warn of a possible surge in cases in the fall and winter, according to a CNN analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. 

New cases have risen in Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington state, Wisconsin and Wyoming, according to CNN. 


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Cases in at least 18 states are holding steady while 11 states have experienced a decrease of 10 percent or more from a week earlier, according to the analysis. 

The U.S. is continuing to report more than 40,000 new cases every

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