Coronavirus: New Model Suggests Herd Immunity Could Be Possible

Basic models for COVID-19 suggest herd immunity is achieved when 60% of people are immune. This is because in a population where everyone is susceptible to the coronavirus, an infected person is estimated to infect on average an additional 2.5 people. Yet if 60% of those theoretical 2.5 people are immune, then only one new infection can take place, and the outbreak cannot grow.

This is based on a very simple model, though. It assumes that everyone in the population mixes to the same degree and at random. It’s unrealistic. In our research, we tried to reflect some of the diversity of behaviour found in human populations to show what effect it might have on reaching herd immunity.

We looked at two factors that influence the degree to which people mix with each other. The first was sociability.

Those who are more socially active are more likely to be infected

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Women With Irregular Periods More Likely to Die Before 70, Study Suggests

Embargo 00:01 hours UK time on Thursday 1 October 2020

Women with irregular or long menstrual cycles may be more likely to die prematurely when compared to those who have regular or short cycles, according to a study.

Participants who said they always had irregular periods were more likely to pass away before the age of 70, or prematurely, than those who had very regular cycles, the findings published in the journal The BMJ showed.

Irregular and long cycles in adulthood were linked to a higher risk of dying of cancer or cardiovascular disease, but the link was strongest for the latter.

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The team made similar findings in the death risk for women who had cycles lasting 40 days or more, or which were too irregular to estimate when compared with participants who had cycles between 26 to 31 days, which is considered normal.

The likelihood

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