model

UMass COVID-19 model projects unsettling death toll in state, across country

Some forecast models are predicting a startling rise in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States through the fall and winter, including a model in Massachusetts.On Tuesday, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health reported that the state’s confirmed COVID-19 death toll has reached 9,323.According to the University of Massachusetts Amherst’s COVID-19 Forecast Hub, that number will hit 10,000 by the end of October. The model also predicts 228,000 COVID-19-related deaths nationwide by the end of the month.“It’s a grim milestone and it’s just a reminder of just how serious COVID can be,” said Nick Reich, a UMass Amherst biostatistician.The UMass Amherst model only forecasts up to a month into the future and does not account for changes in human behavior.“We’re looking into a foggy crystal ball here and it’s an inexact science,” Reich said. “Either way, a lot of people have died from COVID in Massachusetts. If we’re not … Read More

Read more
model

UMass model projects state coronavirus death tally will rise to nearly 10,000 by end of month

A University of Massachusetts model predicts the state’s coronavirus death toll could rise to nearly 10,000 by Oct. 31.

The model says the state’s tally could stand at 9,967 coronavirus deaths by that time, though researchers noted the numbers could range between 9,792 and 10,262.

The model numbers reflect both confirmed and probable cases. The state had tallied 9,530 confirmed and probable case deaths as of Monday.

The rate of deaths reported each day has declined after a terrifying climb this spring, but the heartbreaking numbers have not gone to zero. The modelers say weekly deaths could range from 70 to 190 in the next four weeks.

Last week’s model had projected a slight decline in confirmed and probable coronavirus cases in coming weeks. This week’s model, however, notes a sharp increase in cases in the week ending Saturday, and it predicts the case numbers will generally stabilize at that

Read More Read more
model

UMass model predicts Mass. death tally to rise near 9,800 in four weeks

A University of Massachusetts model predicts the state’s coronavirus death toll could rise near 9,800 by Oct. 24.

The model says the state could tally 9,769 coronavirus deaths by that time, though researchers noted the number could range from 9,633 to 9,997.

The model numbers reflect both confirmed and probable cases. The state had tallied 9,423 confirmed and probable case deaths as of Tuesday.

The rate of deaths reported each day has slowed after a terrifying climb this spring. The model predicts the state will continue to see around 90 coronavirus deaths a week in the coming weeks.

The projection comes from a lab headed by UMass Amherst associate professor Nicholas Reich that collects various models and develops a combined forecast that is intended to reflect their collective wisdom.

It only creates the forecast for a four-week window ahead because scientists believe forecasts aren’t reliable enough after that.

Reich’s lab

Read More Read more