UMass COVID-19 model projects unsettling death toll in state, across country

Some forecast models are predicting a startling rise in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States through the fall and winter, including a model in Massachusetts.On Tuesday, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health reported that the state’s confirmed COVID-19 death toll has reached 9,323.According to the University of Massachusetts Amherst’s COVID-19 Forecast Hub, that number will hit 10,000 by the end of October. The model also predicts 228,000 COVID-19-related deaths nationwide by the end of the month.“It’s a grim milestone and it’s just a reminder of just how serious COVID can be,” said Nick Reich, a UMass Amherst biostatistician.The UMass Amherst model only forecasts up to a month into the future and does not account for changes in human behavior.“We’re looking into a foggy crystal ball here and it’s an inexact science,” Reich said. “Either way, a lot of people have died from COVID in Massachusetts. If we’re not … Read More

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