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Titans vs. Bills odds, line, spread: Week 5 picks, Tuesday NFL predictions from model on 103-69 roll

The Buffalo Bills haven’t finished atop the AFC East since 1995, when they captured the division title for the sixth time in eight years. With the Tom Brady era in New England now over, their path to get back to the top of the mountain is a bit easier. The Bills hope to take the next step on Tuesday when they visit the Tennessee Titans for a contest that was pushed back due to positive COVID-19 tests for members of the home team. Kickoff from Nissan Stadium in Nashville is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS.

Tennessee (3-0) occupies first place in the AFC South but hasn’t taken the field since its 31-30 victory at Minnesota on Sept. 27 after its Week 4 contest against Pittsburgh was moved to Week 7 due to the Titans coronavirus outbreak. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Titans vs. Bills odds from William Hill, while the over-under is 53. Before locking in any Bills vs. Titans picks, make sure you see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It’s off to a strong 7-4 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model entered Week 5 on an incredible 103-69 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Titans vs. Bills. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds from William Hill and trends for Bills vs. Titans:

  • Titans vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -3.5
  • Titans vs. Bills over-under: 53 points
  • Titans vs. Bills money line: Buffalo -185, Tennessee +165
  • BUF: Bills are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as favorites
  • TEN: Titans are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games overall

Why the Bills can cover

After leading Buffalo to the playoffs in his sophomore season last year, Josh Allen continues to demonstrate why he was the highest-drafted quarterback in franchise history. The 24-year-old from the University of Wyoming, who was selected seventh overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, entered Week 5 second in the league in passing yards (1,326) and third in both passer rating (122.7) and touchdown tosses (12). Allen is eight scoring passes away from matching the career-best total he recorded in 2019.

Allen has been spreading the ball around, as 12 different players have a catch, with eight of them finding the end zone. Running back Devin Singletary has been targeted 21 times, while three different receivers have had the ball thrown their way on at least 23 occasions. Stefon Diggs leads the way with 26 receptions, 403 yards and two touchdowns in his first season with the Bills. 

Buffalo also catches Tennessee with key players such as receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and offensive tackle Taylor Lewan (shoulder) listed as questionable. Though their status can change leading up to kickoff, the Titans could have as many as eight players on the COVID-19 reserve list, with receiver Corey Davis and defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons among the most notable. 

Why the Titans can cover

Buffalo (101 yards allowed) may have the eighth-ranked rushing defense in the NFL, but Tennessee has the reigning rushing champion in Derrick Henry. The 26-year-old Alabama product ran for a career-high 1,540 yards last year and was a beast in leading the Titans to the AFC Championship Game, combining for 377 yards on the ground in their first two postseason wins. Henry has eclipsed 115 yards in two of his three games this year and is coming off a two-touchdown effort in the win against Minnesota.

Despite finishing without a TD pass and being intercepted for the first time this year, Ryan Tannehill also had a strong performance versus the Vikings as he threw for a season-high 321 yards. The 32-year-old from Texas A&M had six scoring tosses in his first two contests and has completed 67.3 percent of his pass attempts. Tennessee’s offensive line has done a fine job thus far, as Tannehill has been sacked just once in each game.

How to make Bills vs. Titans picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under the total, as the simulations give Allen a high probability of throwing an interception and also projects that Tannehill will throw for fewer than 200 yards. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here. 

So who wins Bills vs. Titans on Tuesday? And which side of the spread cashes in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Titans spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,300 on its NFL picks, and find out.

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